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- 🚨 On Edge Ahead of the Fed
🚨 On Edge Ahead of the Fed
In partnership with
NYSE
Hello, my friends!
📊 Wall Street is bracing for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate cut decision - and big money is sitting tight, waiting to strike.
❓ Tomorrow’s announcement holds the keys to the market’s next major direction, which means today’s action in Nasdaq is more about positioning than conviction.
Greed Mode
The Fear & Greed Index has pushed firmly into greed territory.
No surprise here - Markets are charging into uncharted territory, what I call “no man’s land.”
This zone demands a reset: new supply and demand levels must form before the next leg higher (or lower) can take shape.
NQ Futures
One of the top questions I hear from members around this time is: “Why do we see such big gaps on the charts during futures rollovers?”
It’s a fair question - and whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned trader, understanding rollover mechanics is critical. So today’s lesson dives right into that.
The CME Gap
🔍Why Today’s Gap Appeared
Quarterly Expiration: Nasdaq futures (NQ) trade on a quarterly cycle - March, June, September, and December. As one contract nears expiration, trading activity shifts into the next month’s contract. This transition is called the rollover.
Liquidity Migration: Large funds and institutions always seek the deepest liquidity. As open interest builds in the new contract, volume naturally migrates there, causing short-term price differences.
Spread Differences: The outgoing and incoming (next month) contracts don’t always align perfectly. Variations in interest rates, dividends, and cost of carry can create small premiums or discounts between contracts.
Chart Gaps: When platforms roll over to the new “front month,” those pricing differences show up as gaps on the chart. Importantly, these aren’t sudden surges of buying or selling - they’re purely mechanical.
📈 Historical Context
Seasonal Pattern: This process occurs four times per year during each expiration cycle.
Market Behavior:
Short-term traders often fade the initial move until liquidity stabilizes.
Institutional players roll positions methodically, meaning the gap effect usually resolves within 1–2 sessions.
Extreme Cases: During periods of stress - such as March 2020’s pandemic shock or the late 2021 tech unwind - roll gaps have exceeded 100+ points.
Today’s gap wasn’t about sudden momentum or a hidden catalyst - it was simply the mechanics of rolling into the December contract. Traders should always be mindful of these quarterly transitions when analyzing charts, as they can distort short-term signals.
Trade Of The Week
Alpha Futures
My standout trade this week came on Friday, when Nasdaq broke through its all-time highs.
Many traders see this kind of move as “uncharted territory,” assuming there are no clear supply or demand zones to work with.
But this is where my edge comes in: I rely on options market data - specifically gamma exposure levels from QQQ and SPY - to identify intraday zones of support and resistance - at BlackBoxStocks.
These levels consistently provide structure even when the chart alone looks uncertain.
👉 If you’ve ever wondered how to properly use gamma exposure to guide your trading decisions, CLICK here to book an intro session on Calendly.
I’m now focused on securing a 2nd payout on this account. I’ll be trading alongside the BlackBox community, documenting the process for more detailed stats once this next milestone is complete.
BlackboxStocks
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Alpha Futures
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Disclosure: Partner offers. Trading futures involves risk; only trade with capital you can afford to lose. This is not financial advice.
How 433 Investors Unlocked 400X Return Potential
Institutional investors back startups to unlock outsized returns. Regular investors have to wait. But not anymore. Thanks to regulatory updates, some companies are doing things differently.
Take Revolut. In 2016, 433 regular people invested an average of $2,730. Today? They got a 400X buyout offer from the company, as Revolut’s valuation increased 89,900% in the same timeframe.
Founded by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso’s co-ownership tech reshapes the $1.3T vacation home market. They’ve earned $110M+ in gross profit to date, including 41% YoY growth in 2024 alone. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
The same institutional investors behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay backed Pacaso. And you can join them. But not for long. Pacaso’s investment opportunity ends September 18.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
What’s your trading story?
Hit reply and tell me - then jump to X to keep the momentum going.
Until next time,
Steve B
Founder, The Daily Impulse
Important Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not offer financial or investment advice. It should not be taken as a recommendation to trade assets or make any financial decisions. Please be cautious and ensure you conduct thorough research or consult with a financial professional before making any investment choices.
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