⏱️New Quarter, New Tape

September 11, 2025

In partnership with

Hello, my Friends!

A fresh quarter resets the board - and the next few weeks will set the tone for both your long-term allocation and short-term tactics.

Here’s what to watch and why it matters.

🚀 Earnings Season Begins: Companies open the books on last quarter - revealing revenue, margins, guidance, and execution. Expect single-stock gaps and sector rotations as beats/misses ripple through positioning.

⚖️ Institutional Rebalancing: Funds realign to benchmarks and risk targets. Those flows can amplify moves in leaders/laggards and lift trading volumes at quarter start.

📊 Macro Data Hits: Early-quarter prints (GDP, jobs, inflation) reset policy odds and risk appetite. One surprise can reprice entire curves - and your sector tilts with them.

⚡️ Volatility Uptick: New information + new flows = more two-way price discovery. Tighten execution, respect levels, and be ready for faster moves.

Nasdaq100

  • S&P 500: Through all-time highs and exploring new territory - bulls remain in control as breadth improves beyond mega-cap tech.

  • Nasdaq: Still trailing prior highs, signaling relative tech weakness versus the broader market. The question now: does the divergence persist, or does a high-volume breakout catch it up?

Today’s Impulses:

  • US Super-core CPI YoY at 3.21%, unchanged.

  • Rates futures imply four consecutive 25 bp Fed cuts through January.

  • Traders fully price three Fed cuts by end-2025.

  • Money markets now see a ~50% chance of a 25 bp ECB cut by June 2026 (down from ~60% pre-statement).

  • ECB inclined to hold steady barring an economic shock.

With earnings and rebalances, this is prime time for disciplined risk -and to let the tape confirm before pressing.

Equity Curve Update

Alpha Account

After my last payout, the Alpha funded account slipped into a decline - now the curve is bending back into profit. Momentum is returning, and the goal is clear: hit $153,000 within 10 trading days for payout #2.

The Playbook

  • Only intraday trend trades. No bottom-catching, no top-picking, no reversals.

  • Tighter risk bands. New quarter = shifting tape: volume profiles and options flow are reading differently. I’m gathering more data before scaling size.

  • Sample size first, size later. Edge expands with evidence, not hope.

Quarter turns often reshape liquidity, dealer positioning, and follow-through. The puzzle is always the same - data quality vs. risk comfort.

I’ve been here many times - early-quarter chop can test conviction - so I’m deliberately reducing risk in uncertainty to protect the curve and keep the compounding engine intact.

Stay sharp, manage risk, and I’ll meet you at the next impulse.

Newsletter Partners

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Disclosure: Partner offers. Trading futures involves risk; only trade with capital you can afford to lose. This is not financial advice.

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Until next time,
Steve B
Founder, The Daily Impulse

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