New Heights: Breakout or Fake-out?

In partnership with

Hello, my friends!

Today kicked off with major action as the S&P 500 (SPY) hit an all-time high, making headlines everywhere.

But here’s the twist—this impressive move happened in the pre-market on notably low volume.

While it’s exciting to see the market break records, seasoned traders know this could be a warning signal.

• Was it a genuine breakout, or a setup to lure buyers and inject liquidity into the market?

I usually focus on managing Nasdaq positions 9 times out of 10, but today, S&P demands the spotlight.

Its positioning is not just relevant to today’s market moves—but gives powerful insights into broader market trends, and staying on top of its movements can unlock hidden opportunities.

The goal was to remain sharp and, most importantly, patient—waiting to see what insights the market data would reveal before making any major predictions.

Live Headlines ⚡

• S&P 500 Breaks Record: The S&P 500 surged to an intraday high of 5,670.81 ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

• Retail Sales Rebound: Unexpected growth in retail sales for August eased fears of a sharp economic slowdown.

• Tech Gains: Microsoft leads with a 1% rise on news of a $60 billion share buyback and dividend hike. Intel also jumps 6.2% following a deal with Amazon.

• Fed Watch: Investors await a likely rate cut, with a 59% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction

Lets dive into a lesson first into Market Data before analyzing the technical 👇

Lessons from the Trenches 📚

There was a time when I traded purely on instinct—a gut feeling that I thought would lead me to success. Like many traders, I believed that if I studied enough charts and got the right "feel" for the market, I could outsmart the data. For a while, it worked... until it didn’t.

I found myself in a trading rut, frustrated by losses I couldn’t explain. I was chasing trades, reacting emotionally, and constantly feeling like I was two steps behind. Every win felt like luck, and every loss felt like a punch in the gut. I knew something had to change, but I didn't realize that the very thing I had been neglecting—data—was about to change everything for me.

Something about the data made me hesitate. For the first time, I dove deeper—reviewing historical trends, comparing volume metrics, and analyzing broader market indicators. The data told a different story: patience.

So, I waited. It was agonizing, watching the market fluctuate while I stood on the sidelines. But then, almost like clockwork, the asset hit a key support level that the data had flagged, and I pulled the trigger.

From that moment, I became obsessed with the numbers. I started diving into daily market data like a detective searching for clues. I built systems and checklists, tracking everything from volatility triggers to institutional flows, using data not just as a guide but as a tool for discipline.

Suddenly, my trading felt more controlled, more informed, and less about chasing the "next big win."

In the trenches of trading, where emotions run high and volatility is a constant companion, data became my compass. It was my edge, the thing that separated me from being just another trader riding the wave of market uncertainty. It gave me the patience to wait for the right opportunities and the clarity to make decisions based on facts, not feelings.

If there’s one lesson I’ve learned, it’s that data isn't just numbers on a screen—it's a story waiting to be uncovered. And when you learn how to read that story, you transform from a trader into a strategist. The markets no longer control you; you control your place in the markets.

As the old saying goes: Trade smarter, not harder.

Pre-Market🕒

8:00-9:30 Est

• Price has already gapped up during the London session and continued a slow grind higher.

• The question I ask myself each morning is, "Where’s the most visible data, and is it in a key location?"

• Today, the largest exposure level was right at the all-time high—565.37—setting the stage for increased volatility ahead.

• The market was flashing signals, and this trillion-dollar global machine was poised to take off with full momentum!

NY Impulse (1.02%) SPY🏦📉

9:30-12:00 Est

• After two hours of choppy price action, the market finally made its move, refusing to hold above key levels.

• Timing was everything as we watched to see how long the top side could stay intact.

• By lunchtime, the sell-off was confirmed, with sellers taking full control.

• Price hit a pause at the high-demand zone between 562.5 and 561(0DTE Put Support), marking the conclusion of the day’s move.

• This was a decisive shift, signaling the end of the upward momentum.

• SPY 562.5 (0DTE Gamma Support)

• SPY 565 (0DTE Gamma Resistance)

• SPY 561 (0DTE Positive/Negative Shift)

0DTE Levels: Zones of significant options volume in underlying assets, that can trigger an increase of volatility as the expiration approaches

These market levels are recalculated and updated daily, taking into account factors like gamma expiration, trading volume, and market volatility.

Coverage include Stocks, ETFs, Indices, Futures, and Crypto. For the most up-to-date levels and analysis, all information is available on MenthorQ.

Ending Headlines 📰

• S&P 500 edges higher with a gain of 0.2%, driven by investor anticipation of this week's Federal Reserve meeting.

• Investors await the Fed's policy decision on interest rates, with expectations of a pause in hikes.

• Key data from the housing sector, including August housing starts, is also set to influence market sentiment.

Closing Thought 🧠

Today’s action was a textbook all-time high reversal, as the market fooled demand and took a much-needed breather.

Was this a surprise?

Of course not❗

With the FOMC decision looming tomorrow, the market is gearing up for a potential shift.

Stay sharp—big moves could be just around the corner!

Until next time,
Steve Benyi
Founder, The Daily Impulse

Interested in learning how I manage risk and identify key levels in the market?

Join the community and be part of the journey!

We have exclusive monthly and yearly offers. Every plan is at your own pace.

New here? Join the newsletter below!

Steal our best value stock ideas.

PayPal, Disney, and Nike all dropped 50-80% recently from all-time highs.

Are they undervalued? Can they turn around? What’s next? You don’t have time to track every stock, but should you be forced to miss all the best opportunities?

That’s why we scour hundreds of value stock ideas for you. Whenever we find something interesting, we send it straight to your inbox.

Subscribe free to Value Investor Daily with one click so you never miss out on our research again.

Important Disclaimer:

This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not offer financial or investment advice. It should not be taken as a recommendation to trade assets or make any financial decisions. Please be cautious and ensure you conduct thorough research or consult with a financial professional before making any investment choices.