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Low Probability Window

Hello, my Friends!
It was shaping up to be a calm day in the markets, with no major headlines on the horizon - until President Donald Trump took the virtual stage at the World Economic Forum.
For those who haven’t experienced the rollercoaster markets of pre-2020, the sudden surge in volatility might have seemed shocking.
But for seasoned traders, it’s a vivid reminder of how just a few words from the President can ignite some truly explosive price action!
Here are the key statements that rattled the markets:
“Congress will pass the largest tax cut in American history.” 🔥
“I will ask OPEC to lower oil prices.” ⛽️
“I will demand lower interest rates.” 📉
“I would guarantee US energy supply security to Europe.” 🌍

Jerome Powell
Even a few words can have a global impact.
But before we dive into how we can ride that wave, let’s continue our injection into risk tolerance - a lesson I learned the hard way…
Lessons From the Trenches⚔️
The moment the market opened, I noticed a massive surge in trading volume.
My instincts screamed, “Jump in now - you’ll catch the early wave!”
Instead of following my usual practice of waiting 10–15 minutes for that initial whipsaw to settle, I placed a trade within the first three minutes.
Sure enough, the market pulled an immediate 180° - a move I absolutely could’ve avoided had I stuck to my routine.
I’ve always known that early volatility behaves like a roulette wheel. You never know when the next big spin will hit…
Bad Advice Context: Jumping in at the opening bell only works if you’re fully prepared to handle extreme volatility or have done thorough pre-market analysis.
My Reality: That morning, I hadn’t done the homework. I was just chasing hype and my own Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO).
As soon as my position turned south, I found myself caught in an internal tug-of-war:
Intuition: “Get out - this setup isn’t for you!”
Ego: “Don’t bail now; the market might flip any second!”
If you’ve ever found yourself breaking your own rules - and then paying the price - forward this newsletter to someone who needs the reminder.
Or, if you’re questioning your own strategy, consider this a nudge to trust your data and your instincts over the market noise.
60% and 80% of retail traders entering positions right at the open end up taking losses—largely due to heightened volatility and rapid price swings that catch newer traders off-guard.
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Stay patient, and risk smart.
Until next time,
Steve B
Founder, The Daily Impulse

Important Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not offer financial or investment advice. It should not be taken as a recommendation to trade assets or make any financial decisions. Please be cautious and ensure you conduct thorough research or consult with a financial professional before making any investment choices.
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