🚂85% Chance of a One-Way Train

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Hello, my friends!

Today marked a high-stakes FOMC meeting in the U.S - an event watched worldwide, especially now that market sentiment has turned decidedly bearish.

The new administration under President Trump has hinted at a readiness to endure near-term pain in order to pressure the Federal Reserve into cutting rates.

Yet the pressing question remains: How much longer will the Fed wait?

Before diving into the Impulses, here are some essential strategies to help you prepare:

1. Prepare Scenarios in Advance Don’t wait for the rate announcement to decide your next move.

2. Set Aside a Volatility Fund Keep extra capital on standby for sudden opportunities - whether that’s strategic buys, expansions, or exploiting market “discounts”.

3. Cultivate a Mindset of Exploration Volatility rattles the status quo, revealing opportunities you might otherwise miss.

4. Focus on Relationships When others become risk-averse, deepen partnerships with suppliers or collaborators.

5. Stay Grounded Volatility eventually subsides. By keeping your wits about you and executing a well-thought-out plan, you’re more likely to emerge on stronger footing.

When markets pivot sharply, a solid yet flexible strategy can turn uncertainty into a real competitive edge.

🌟FOMC Fun Facts🌟

• The “Pre-FOMC Drift” Phenomenon
  Studies suggest a considerable share of annual equity gains often occurs just before an FOMC announcement.

• The Greenspan Briefcase Indicator
  Back in the day, traders joked they could gauge the Fed’s next move by the thickness of Alan Greenspan’s briefcase en route to the meeting.

• Eight Meetings a Year
  The FOMC schedules eight regular meetings annually but can call emergency ones if circumstances demand.

• All Eyes on 2:00 PM EST
  The official policy statement typically hits at 2:00 PM, sending markets into a sudden flurry of activity as traders digest the details.

• Press Conference Aftershock
  About half an hour later, the Fed Chair holds a press conference, often igniting a second wave of volatility.

• “Fed Watching” as a Full-Time Job
  Analysts, economists, and journalists devote entire careers to deciphering subtle signals and statements from the Fed.

🚀FOMC Rundown🚀

The Fed kept rates unchanged as anticipated.

• Economic Projections (SEP): Sharply lowered GDP expectations while raising forecasts for the unemployment rate.

• Fed Chair Powell: Emphasized heightened economic uncertainty according to surveys, suggesting policy restraint could last if the economy stays robust.

• Goods Inflation: Recent increases could partly stem from tariffs; if these elevated readings persist, they’ll warrant close scrutiny.

• Recession Outlook: Forecasters have bumped up their recession probabilities, but not to a worrying degree.

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Until next time,
Steve B
Founder, The Daily Impulse

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